Heat Pumps for Your Home: Cost, Savings and How to Choose
What a heat pump costs to run in 2026, how much it can save versus a furnace, AC or baseboard heat, how to read SEER2 and HSPF2, and what help is left.
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Compare what your current central air conditioner costs to run each summer with a higher-SEER2 model, and see how long the extra price of the efficient unit takes to pay back.
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Moving from SEER2 10 to 16 cuts cooling costs from about $778 to $486 a year, a saving of $292.
Estimate only. Uses the assumptions explained below.
A higher SEER2 rating means a central air conditioner or heat pump uses less electricity for the same cooling. But a more efficient unit also costs more. This SEER2 savings calculator shows what the efficiency gain is worth in your climate and at your electricity price.
SEER2 is cooling delivered (in BTU) per watt-hour of electricity over a season. So the electricity a system uses is the cooling it delivers divided by its SEER2.
Capacity (BTU/h) = tons × 12,000
Seasonal cooling = capacity × full-load hours
kWh used = seasonal cooling ÷ (SEER2 × 1,000)
Cooling cost = kWh used × electricity price
Yearly savings = cost with old SEER2 − cost with new SEER2
Payback (years) = extra cost of efficient model ÷ yearly savings
One ton of cooling is 12,000 BTU per hour. Dividing by 1,000 turns watt-hours into kWh.
The default price is $0.18 per kWh, from the July 2026 US average residential price of 18.31 cents (EIA, Table 5.6.A). The default 1,200 full-load hours is a mid-range assumption, not a measured value for your area.
The calculator assumes both systems deliver the same cooling over the same hours, and that each one performs at its rated SEER2. Real performance depends on installation, ducts and refrigerant charge.
The default inputs: a 3-ton system, 1,200 full-load cooling hours, an old system at 10 SEER2, a new one at 16 SEER2, and $0.18 per kWh.
The default extra cost is $0, so the payback line reads “No extra cost entered”. Add the price difference between the two models to see a real payback.
A household in a hot climate has a 2.5-ton system rated 13 SEER2 and runs it about 2,000 full-load hours a year. They pay $0.155 per kWh. A 17 SEER2 replacement costs $1,500 more than a minimum-efficiency model. The calculator shows cooling costs falling from about $715 to $547 a year, a saving of about $168 and 1,086 kWh, and a payback on the extra cost of about 8.9 years.
Yearly savings is what the efficiency gap is worth each cooling season at today’s price. Payback compares that with the extra price of the efficient model, not the whole system.
If you must replace a broken system anyway, compare models you could actually buy. The question is not “should I replace?” but “is the more efficient choice worth the extra cost?” A payback well inside the system’s expected life is a good sign. A payback longer than the life of the system usually is not, unless comfort features such as variable speed or better humidity control matter to you.
If your current system works, a big SEER2 jump alone rarely justifies replacing it early. Run the full project cost through the energy upgrade payback calculator to check.
Using the calculator’s defaults (3 tons, old system 10 SEER2, $0.18 per kWh):
| Scenario | Cost with old system | Cost with new system | Yearly savings |
|---|---|---|---|
| 600 hours, new 16 SEER2 | $389 | $243 | $146 |
| 1,200 hours, new 14.3 SEER2 | $778 | $544 | $234 |
| 1,200 hours, new 16 SEER2 (default) | $778 | $486 | $292 |
| 1,200 hours, new 18 SEER2 | $778 | $432 | $346 |
| 1,200 hours, new 20 SEER2 | $778 | $389 | $389 |
| 2,000 hours, new 16 SEER2 | $1,296 | $810 | $486 |
Notice that each step up in SEER2 saves a bit less than the step before. Going from 10 to 14.3 saves far more than going from 18 to 20. Hours of use matter as much as the rating.
Federal minimums. Since January 1, 2023, DOE requires split-system central air conditioners under 45,000 BTU per hour to reach 13.4 SEER2 in the North and 14.3 SEER2 in the Southeast and Southwest; split-system heat pumps must reach 14.3 SEER2 everywhere (DOE FAQ). DOE’s regional enforcement guidance says units that do not meet the regional standard cannot be installed in the Southeast or Southwest.
Tax credits. The federal 25C credit does not apply to property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS). There is no federal tax credit for a new AC or heat pump installed in 2026. See our 2026 energy tax credit guide.
Rebates. State Home Energy Rebate programs run only in some states, and since DOE Program Notice 26-2 (effective May 29, 2026) heat pump rebates are limited to homes that already heat with electricity or new construction. Utility rebates vary. Check our rebates by state guide and DSIRE.
Electricity prices. In July 2026, average residential prices ranged from about 12.72 cents per kWh in Louisiana to 48.00 cents in Hawaii (EIA). The same efficiency upgrade is worth almost four times as much at the high end.
The calculator uses rated SEER2 values and one average electricity price. It does not model part-load behavior, duct losses, humidity removal, time-of-use rates, aging equipment or future price changes. It covers cooling only, not heating.
It gives an educational estimate, not a quote or advice. Get at least three written quotes that list each model’s SEER2 rating and AHRI certificate number.
SEER2 stands for Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio 2. It measures how much cooling a central air conditioner or heat pump delivers over a typical season for each watt-hour of electricity. Higher is better. The Department of Energy began using SEER2 on January 1, 2023, after changing the test procedure to better reflect real-world installations, such as the air resistance of typical ductwork.
There is no exact conversion. The Department of Energy says SEER2 ratings are similar to the old SEER ratings but not directly comparable, because the test conditions changed. As a rough rule, this calculator's help text treats older SEER numbers as about 4 to 5 percent higher than SEER2. If your old unit is rated 10 SEER, entering about 9.5 SEER2 is a reasonable estimate.
Federal standards that took effect January 1, 2023 still apply. Split-system central air conditioners under 45,000 BTU per hour must reach 13.4 SEER2 in the North and 14.3 SEER2 in the Southeast and Southwest, where they also need an EER2 rating. Split-system heat pumps must reach 14.3 SEER2 nationwide. A contractor cannot legally install a non-compliant central AC in the Southeast or Southwest.
It depends on how much you run your AC and on the price gap. With the calculator's defaults, a 3-ton system running 1,200 full-load hours at 18 cents per kWh costs about $544 a year at 14.3 SEER2 and $486 at 16 SEER2, a difference of about $58 a year. If the more efficient model costs $1,000 more, the calculator puts the payback at about 17.3 years. In hot climates with long cooling seasons, the case gets much stronger.
Full-load hours are the number of hours your system would need to run at full capacity to deliver a whole season of cooling. A system that runs at half power for 2,000 hours counts as about 1,000 full-load hours. The calculator suggests roughly 600 in the North, 1,000 to 1,500 in the mid-South and 2,000 or more in hot, humid areas as a starting point. Your utility or contractor may have local figures.
No. The federal Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (Section 25C) does not apply to property placed in service after December 31, 2025. Equipment installed in 2025 may still qualify on your 2025 tax return. Some utilities and states offer rebates; check DSIRE and your utility. Talk to a tax professional about your own situation.
If your AC is near the end of its life, a heat pump gives you the same cooling plus efficient heating. Its cooling cost at a given SEER2 is the same as an AC's, so this calculator covers the cooling side. To see what a heat pump could save on heating, use the heat pump savings calculator.
This calculator gives educational estimates, not quotes, tax advice or an eligibility decision. Results depend on the inputs and assumptions shown above. How we research
What a heat pump costs to run in 2026, how much it can save versus a furnace, AC or baseboard heat, how to read SEER2 and HSPF2, and what help is left.
Ways to lower your energy bill, ranked from free habit changes to low-cost fixes and big upgrades, with official savings figures and where to find help.